Though the seasonal trough, now running close to the foothills of the Himalayas, is likely to shift back southwards to its near normal position in the second half of the coming week, the meteorological analysis does not indicate development of any strong weather system, according to the IMD’s weekly forecast.
The emerging scenario could be in line with the predictions made in June.
At a press conference on June 21, the IMD forecast that the rainfall during July and August could be well below normal this year: 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA) for July, and 94 per cent for July.
Asked specifically about rains during July, which spell is crucial for agriculture, IMD Director-General Ajit Tyagi had said the system was likely to be weak during the first half of the month and pick up later.
The IMD had also forecast that rainfall during the four-month season as a whole could be below normal at 95 per cent of the LPA, with the southern peninsular region being the worst hit.
The region is likely to get a rainfall of only about 94 per cent of its LPA for the season as a whole. It consists of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
In contrast, the northwest region, which is likely to top the table, is forecast to get a rainfall of 97 per cent of its LPA for the season. It consists of Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan.
The east and northeast, and central India are likely to fall in between, with a rainfall of 95 per cent of their LPA for the season. While the east and northeast consists of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim, besides the seven northeastern States, Central India is comprised of s Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Goa and Chhattisgarh.
Meanwhile, as on Friday [at the end of the first month of the season], the country received a rainfall of 10 per cent more than the normal for the month. Out of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 26 have received normal or excess rain.
The northwest led the table with a rainfall of 71 per cent more than normal, followed by Central India (plus nine per cent), the south peninsular region (minus four per cent) and the east and northeast (minus six per cent).